Feb09: Who will perform in 2009? - F1 2009, KERS, slicks and thing's

This season begins with the least amount of testing ever seen in recent F1 times and also the massive rule changes that have come into force over the European winter. That means that predicting exactly who is going to prevail over the coming season is more difficult than ever. The cars look different but to be honest I'm already getting used to them and last years cars look heavy and dated... The new cars look great in profile but a bit silly from the rear...

The favorites for Melbourne then.

McLaren look terribly well organised, have had no complaints or whinges or excuses, their car looks good, their number one driver is focused and already has the monkey off his back.

Some teams (Ferrari/BMW/Toyota) have been testing in Bahrain and the others have been in Spain. Ferrari currently have the upper hand in Bahrain but the margins are indeed marginal. In Jerez the STR's have been constantly on top of the times with their '08 challenger while they wait for Red Bull to pass on a couple of new chassis. More representative is the rest of the teams or so it seems. McLaren have been playing around with rear wings and frequently have an '08 style wing on the back of the MP4. Personally I can't see the reason because any comparisons are mute. Do they have a rear grip problem?

Renault and Alonso/Piquet seemed slow initially but actually ended up quickest of the '09 machinery yesterday if you discount McLaren and their dodgy rear wing.

As ever, more than ever, picking the obvious quickest team is much harder. They will be experimenting with a myriad of different configurations because of the new regulations and only Melbourne is going to show what the true pecking order is going to be.

In short McLaren look confident, have good momentum behind them, Ferrari appear to have KERS issues and not that much of an advantage over Toyota/BMW. Toyota look good, so do BMW who have been playing around with KERS for a long time now and I think they will have the best solution (KERS) out there come race time in Melbourne.

Renault may be quick and have Alonso but they wont figure prominently early on. There has been too many issues to contend with notably a total front end redesign to pass the FIA safety tests.
Adrian Newey (Red Bull) will finally have something to get his teeth into with the new RB5 and it is the best looking car out there. The drivers are pretty good as well. Probably the best driver combination after Ferrari. In fact on performance from '08 you could say they have the best combination of all although Kimi did have a pretty rubbish year didn't he? I would say BMW have the next best line up then McLaren (Heikki really let the team down last year - after all his team mate did win the title), worst combination will have to be Force India. I digress.

Williams could be a dark horse in the early rounds, Rosberg is a superb driver even if he suffered a bit from a lack of motivation last year. For a driver, after confidence, motivation has to be the next thing in line to boost your performance. They have had a good run with KERS but they don't intend running it in the first few rounds. Hard to tell. Money also seems to be an issue.

STR will have a good chassis and a good engine (Ferrari). They will also have good feedback/information transfer from Red Bull. Don't forget last year they were two separate teams but this year they come under the same financial umbrella and there will be passing of information so they will be more competitive earlier than they were last year. They should be anyway...The verdict is still out on Bourdais and the new chap Beumi. What sort of name is that? By the way he is the third Sebastien on the grid. I think if I change my name to Seb Werth I will have a good chance of drive at STR next year...

Force India haven't even launched their chassis yet, apparently delayed because they changed from Ferrari to Mercedes, of course they will benefit from McLaren know how but they really don't have the experience, I think they will surprise on occasion but they are not serious contenders.

Who else? Oh yes Honda or not Honda. They apparently as of writing will have Jenson Button, Bruno Senna and Mercedes engines. I expect even with such a regurgitated mix up of an off season they will still come out and beat Force India. But not much else.

So having re-read this it definitely looks like I don't have a clue who is going to win in Melbourne. Not even close. And that is a good thing.

THERAT 18FEB '09

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